On a typical day at the grocery store, there’s a familiar sight: folks browsing the array of fresh eggs. But recently, customers might have noticed something unusual—the price of Grade A eggs is on the rise again. If you feel a sense of déjà vu, you’re not alone. The cost has surged dramatically, echoing the sky-high prices we experienced just a couple of years ago.
Since November 2023, egg prices in the U.S. have jumped by a whopping 38%, as per the latest consumer price index data released on Wednesday. Just last month, they spiked by 8%. To put it into perspective, a dozen large Grade A eggs now costs $3.65, a significant climb from $2.14 around the same time last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
So, what’s behind this surge? According to economists and market analysts, two main factors are at play: an outbreak of bird flu that’s taken a toll on egg supply and the increased consumer demand that typically occurs around the winter holidays.
Brian Moscogiuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimited, an egg supplier, has observed, “There’s a very real chance we could flirt with record highs” for these prices.
Back in January 2023, we saw Grade A egg prices reach a peak of $4.82 per dozen, up from $1.93 in January 2022. During that period of pandemic-driven inflation, eggs were a standout item with an annual inflation rate hitting 60% in 2022, as reported by CPI data. Eggs even made it into pop culture discussions: At the Grammy Awards in February 2023, pop star Taylor Swift mentioned to comedian Trevor Noah that her fans were eager to “get on it” to help bring down egg prices.
According to experts, bird flu, technically referred to as highly pathogenic avian influenza, is once again a major factor as it was back in 2022-23. This disease is known to be contagious and lethal among birds, including chickens, and right now, the U.S. is facing a “serious outbreak,” Moscogiuri noted.
The disease first appeared in the U.S. in late 2021 and has been persistent, marking the worst impact on commercial egg-laying farms since 2015. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that about 33 million commercial egg layers have succumbed to bird flu in 2024, leading to what Ryan Hojnowski, an egg analyst at Expana, calls “an egg supply shortage.”
The figures are stark—half of these bird deaths, around 15 million, occurred post-October 15, according to CDC data. Consequently, wholesale egg prices have risen by 97% since mid-October, reports Expana.
Professor Andrew Novakovic from Cornell SC Johnson College of Business explains, “If you have one infection, chances are that d— near all the birds are infected, or will be infected in a very short time.”
These supply challenges coincide with peak demand periods. Hojnowski remarks, “Q4 is when we typically see the strongest demand for eggs as consumers tend to bake around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.” This mix of high demand and tight supply is driving prices up even further.
Novakovic anticipates, “When we get past this holiday effect, I think we’ll see some [price] softening.” However, the future remains uncertain.
The unpredictability stems partly from the unknown duration of the bird flu outbreak. The CDC has noted recent outbreaks in U.S. dairy cows and several human cases among dairy and poultry workers. While the current public health risk is rated “low” as of December 11, according to the CDC’s website, the situation remains fluid.
In response, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has mandated testing of the U.S. milk supply for bird flu to better track and manage the virus.
Novakovic cautions, “Like any infectious disease, it’s a little hard to accurately forecast how it’s going to progress.” Thus, while consumers and industry stakeholders hope for normalization, the path forward remains as uncertain as it is critical.
