Super Micro Computer has projected an ambitious fiscal outlook for 2026, leading to a significant boost in its stock prices by over 13%. However, analysts at JPMorgan are not entirely convinced. While the company foresees revenues reaching an impressive $40 billion by fiscal 2026, its short-term projections are less optimistic. For fiscal 2025, Super Micro predicts revenues between $23.5 billion and $25 billion, aligning closely with the $24.92 billion anticipated by LSEG analysts. Despite these predictions, analyst Samik Chatterjee from JPMorgan remains doubtful due to ongoing supply chain issues affecting the company’s fiscal second-quarter results. Chatterjee reaffirmed his underweight rating on the stock, though he did raise his price target from $23 to $35, reflecting a potential downturn of 9.3% based on Tuesday’s closing figures. He stressed the need for tangible “execution proof points” to justify the company’s aggressive forecasts for 2026 in both revenue and margin expectations.
Chatterjee expressed caution, noting that while the updated outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026 appears promising compared to earlier expectations, it’s premature to fully endorse such optimism. He pointed out two main concerns: the uncertain timeline for resolving supply chain constraints targeting next-generation GPUs, and the looming highly competitive AI Server product market, which contrasts with previous generations of products. This increased competition may challenge Super Micro as its rivals now possess stronger offerings.
Moreover, the analyst emphasized the lack of clarity due to ongoing challenges with the Securities and Exchange Commission, contributing to his skepticism. Nonetheless, Super Micro’s CEO, Charles Liang, reassured shareholders by expressing confidence in meeting the February 25 deadline for filing their delayed annual report.
Contrastingly, some Wall Street analysts hold a more positive outlook on Super Micro Computer. Loop Capital’s Ananda Baruah, maintaining a buy rating, raised his price target from $40 to $50 — marking the second increase in three weeks. Baruah highlighted Super Micro’s critical role within the industry and noted the substantial plans of its two largest customers for 2025, which should inevitably benefit the company.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson also adjusted his price target upwards, from $24 to $40, taking into account the company’s forward guidance. Bryson suggested that timely submission of regulatory filings could alleviate some of the stock’s uncertainty. He expressed optimism for significant business expansion in the first half of 2026 but remained cautious, not modeling as aggressively as Super Micro’s management forecasts. Bryson projected a healthy year-over-year growth of 44% but acknowledged that past financial inconsistencies could continue to affect the company’s risk profile and investor willingness to pay premiums for shares. He assigned a neutral rating to the stock.
