Recent on-chain data highlights a crossover in the XRP Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio that may not bode well for the asset’s price trajectory.

An analysis by Ali Martinez suggests that this newest crossover in the MVRV Ratio could indicate a major trend shift for XRP. The “MVRV Ratio” is a crucial on-chain metric that examines the relationship between a cryptocurrency’s market cap and its realized cap.

To understand realized cap, think of it as a more precise valuation model, which considers a token’s true value based on its last transactional price on the network. This means every coin’s previous transaction price is considered its purchase value. As a result, the realized cap provides insight into the total amount collectively invested by asset holders, whereas the market cap offers a snapshot of current value held by investors.

By comparing these two measurements, the MVRV Ratio reveals the overall profit or loss in the market. A ratio greater than one indicates profits for investors, whereas a value below one suggests a prevalence of losses.

Below is the chart shared by Martinez, illustrating the trend in the XRP MVRV Ratio alongside its 200-day moving average (MA) in recent months:

The graph shows a significant dip recently in the XRP MVRV Ratio, corresponding with a decline in the cryptocurrency’s price. Despite this downturn, the indicator remains above the 1 mark, suggesting that most investors are still seeing gains. However, a matter of concern is its drop below the critical 200-day MA level.

Previously, XRP’s crossing above the 200-day MA a few months back in 2024 marked a bullish phase. Now that it has crossed back below, Martinez warns of a possible upcoming shift in the macro trend for XRP’s price. The coming days will reveal whether XRP continues its downward movement to confirm this pattern.

As for XRP’s current pricing, it stands at approximately $2.23, showing an increase of more than 5% in the past week.