As Donald Trump paints himself as the great and mighty Oz, he didn’t quite prepare America for a bumpy journey toward the idyllic future he promised. Navigating this path now involves making peace with some higher costs of living and shrinking retirement funds. During his campaign, Trump rarely mentioned the necessity for patience, often suggesting he would transform things instantly with his “beautiful” tariffs on imports. Before even stepping back into the Oval Office, he was quick to claim credit for any stock market uptick.
However, the scene has shifted dramatically. The stock market gains have vanished, consumer trust has plummeted, and job creation in the private sector isn’t measuring up. Now, Trump points fingers at Joe Biden, accusing him of handing over a “terrible economy”—a claim not backed by many economic analysts. Both domestic and international critics, including voices from places like the Wall Street Journal, have raised alarms over the current president’s near-obsessive commitment to tariffs. The unpredictable nature of these tariffs is creating a state of paralysis for both big and small enterprises.
Interestingly, the Onion hit closer to reality than satire with its headline: “Trump Says Recession Unfortunate But Necessary Step To Get To Depression.” This rings just slightly more absurd than some of Trump’s recent claims, including a statement to Fox News where he didn’t dismiss the possibility of an impending recession. “It takes a little time,” he remarked, ironically suggesting that watching the stock market was unnecessary, despite his known fixation on it.
Following the market dip triggered by Trump, the Wall Street Journal highlighted fears with the headline: “Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing.” JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are now weighing the increased threat of a recession, blaming what they describe as “extreme U.S. policies.” An investor conveyed to the Journal, “This is very much a man-made situation.”
The identity of this “man” seems obvious, though the scenario shouldn’t have been unexpected for business leaders, lobbyists, and Republicans urging White House staff, including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, to steer Trump toward some stability. The chaos surrounding tariffs is largely due to dismissing Trump’s campaign rally dreams of imposing hefty tariffs on imports. As recently as January, an economist predicted the economic shock would discourage Trump from actually raising tariffs.
Many backers supported Trump not because they bought into his assurances that tariffs wouldn’t hike prices or jeopardize jobs, but because they believed cooler heads would change his mind. However, who exactly would talk him out of it?
In economic matters, as in other areas, Trump’s leadership has thinned out sensible advisors as he embraced more agreeable voices in his second term. Seasoned figures like Gary Cohn, his first-term chief economic advisor who resigned in 2018 over steel and aluminum tariffs, are notably absent. Trump had tweeted just prior to Cohn’s departure: “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”
Trump remains confident, even as he wobbles between actions, responding inconsistently to domestic backlash. The same tariffs on metals that drove Cohn away came into effect again at a 25% rate. In retaliation, the European Union plans to impose tariffs on signature American products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles and blue jeans starting April 1.
This situation has escalated into a multi-front trade war involving China, Canada, and Mexico, some of the U.S.’s biggest trading allies. All have retaliated, with China targeting U.S. agricultural goods, striking at Trump’s rural support base.
With the latest developments, even those in Trump’s business circle are admitting their pre-election belief that tax cuts and deregulation would not entail significant tariffs was misguided. Economist Dario Perkins shared with the Journal, “People could only see the good side of what Trump was promising to do. That has basically evaporated, and now, we’re back to recession watch.”
CEOs from the Business Roundtable met with Trump in hopes of gaining some predictability. “How do you do that with this president?” one participant anonymously questioned the Washington Post.
Trump claims that tariffs will drive foreign companies to establish U.S. operations and compel American businesses to grow domestically, suggesting they will generate revenue and act as rightful penalties. But the numbers don’t add up, and America is footing the bill.
There are signs of tension within Trump’s administration, though publicly the narrative of tranquility prevails. “It is not chaotic,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS News. “And the only one who thinks it’s chaotic is someone who’s being silly.”
Perhaps it’s just us being silly.
@jackiekcalmes
