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So, here’s the scoop. Senate Republicans are in this frantic rush—think headless chicken mode—to get Trump’s “big beautiful” spending bill over the line. But, you know how these things go, right? Provisions start out one way, then poof, they’re something else by the end of negotiations between the Senate and the House.
Anyway, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (that 2017 thing everyone was buzzing about) gave a temporary boost to the child tax credit, doubling it to $2,000. But, hold your applause, that’s set to vanish after 2025 unless Congress pulls a rabbit out of a hat.
Now, here’s the interesting bit. If this Senate bill sees the light of day without getting completely butchered, we’d be looking at a permanent increase to $2,200 starting in 2025. Plus, inflation won’t be able to gobble it up post-2025. But wait, the House has its version too—upping it to $2,500 till 2028. After that, it’s back to $2,000. Honestly, keeping up with these numbers is like trying to predict the weather with a blindfold on.
Oh, and they threw in some other finance tidbits: SALT deductions, Fed’s interest rate musings, and student loans drama. I could get into that but… maybe some other time.
One thing everyone seems to nibble on is whether Trump’s going to actually sign off before these votes get tossed into the chaos blender again. Either way, I hear whispers that those on the lowest rungs of the income ladder might not feel any love from these changes, as per some policy experts.
Kris Cox, who sounds like she’s seen enough of these fiscal shenanigans, had a few choice words—basically implying middle and upper income folks are the ones cashing in. Surprise? Maybe not.
So, like, let me try to break down this whole child tax credit thing. In 2025, you’re looking at up to $2,000 for each kid under 17 with a legit Social Security number. And you can actually get $1,700 back if your credit tops your tax bill.
Elaine Maag chimed in here (gotta give credit—oops, bad pun). She’s from the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center and made this point: low-income peeps miss out, high earners get phased out. Kind of a Goldilocks deal, if you will.
A chunk of your earnings feeds into this, starting after you make $2,500, at a 15% rate, till you hit that magical $2,000 mark per kid. Then, things taper once you’re pairing earnings north of $400,000 (hey, Couplestan) or $200,000 for everyone else.
Now, backtracking to this “central problem” with the tax credit. Cox pointed out that 17 million kids miss the full benefits because, well, their families don’t earn enough to need the credit. The current proposals kind of sidestep this massive pothole, despite a try in 2024 to boost the refundable part. Bipartisanship? Pfft, the Senate didn’t bite.
It’s a byproduct of this ongoing low fertility rate that’s been banned from the congressional worry zone. Some whisper about financial carrots like the tax credit boosting U.S birth rates. But others? Skeptical it’ll fix anything by itself.
Honestly, it’s like trying to use a band-aid on a leaky dam.
