At the start of the week, the US Dollar gained strength against major currencies, thanks to President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China over the weekend. This move seemed to be another strategic step by Trump to bring these countries to the negotiating table and push for a resolution to his demands.
Interestingly, yesterday’s discussions proved somewhat fruitful, leading to a temporary 30-day suspension of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which sparked a more optimistic market sentiment and led to a decline in the US Dollar. Today, all eyes are on Trump’s anticipated conversation with Xi, as any positive developments could further weaken the Dollar.
Turning to the Swiss Franc (CHF), no changes are anticipated for the moment. Remember, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) previously lowered interest rates by 50 basis points at their last meeting, setting the policy rate at 0.50% while also removing forward guidance on additional cuts in future quarters.
This move implies a slower rate of easing than previously anticipated, aligning with market expectations of two 25 basis point reductions within the year. The latest Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures held little surprise for the central bank, aligning closely with predictions.
### USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Looking at the daily chart, USDCHF showed resilience by bouncing around a crucial trendline, pushing its rally up to the 0.92 level as worries over Trump’s tariffs bolstered the US Dollar. However, following positive news on tariffs, sellers entered the market aiming for a pullback towards that trendline. Buyers, conversely, are likely to leverage this trendline for an opportunity to push towards new highs.
### USD/CHF Technical Analysis – 4-hour Timeframe
Examining the 4-hour chart, there isn’t much actionable information to be gleaned at this level. A closer look is necessary to understand the finer details of the movement.
### USD/CHF Technical Analysis – 1-hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour chart, the price dipped below a minor upward trendline, indicating increased selling pressure targeting the major trendline. Buyers hoping for an upswing will want to see a recovery above the minor trendline for a renewed push towards new highs. The red lines on the chart outline today’s average daily range.
### Upcoming Catalysts
Today brings the latest US Job Openings report, alongside the potential Trump-Xi dialogue on tariffs. Tomorrow features key insights from the US ADP employment report and ISM Services PMI. On Thursday, market participants will be focused on the US Jobless Claims figures, with Friday rounding off the week with the much-anticipated US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report.
