OPEC Meeting (Sat):
Alright, so let’s talk about this OPEC thing happening on Saturday, July 5th. Honestly, I don’t get why they’re meeting over the weekend, but who am I to judge? They’re planning to bump up oil output by 411k barrels per day for August—just like they did in May, June, and July. Rumor has it, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are all about gaining market share, despite those regional security hiccups. Some countries, like Kazakhstan, are overproducing. Bloomberg says most folks are sticking to their limits, but who knows? It’s like everything is a balancing act. Anyway, with all this extra oil, some say we’re heading into oversupply, trying to outpace US shale, which apparently had its best month ever in April. Everyone’s watching to see how this plays out and if they’ll keep everyone in line with quotas.
Swedish CPIF (Mon):
Switching gears to Sweden, they’re dealing with some inflation stuff. In May, it was at 2.3% year-over-year. Weirdly cooler than the 2.5% folks expected. The core inflation number was also a smidge lower. This gave the Riksbank (that’s their central bank, FYI), the confidence to cut rates by 25 basis points in June. Deputy Breman is downplaying the numbers, saying a tiny bit above or below 2% is fine. For June, everyone’s curious about how rising energy costs might shake things up. But really, it’s kinda like a wait-and-see situation for future cuts.
RBA Announcement (Tue):
Over in Australia, the RBA’s likely to cut rates. Money markets are betting on a 96% chance they’ll drop it by 25 basis points to 3.60%. Inflation’s chilling out, but no one’s quite sure what’s next. It’s a rollercoaster with ups and downs. Volatility’s up; who knows what’s around the corner? The RBA’s taking a cautious approach, keeping an eye on GDP and employment numbers which haven’t been super thrilling lately. RBA Governor Bullock’s keeping her cards close, hinting at possible rate cuts if inflation falls further. It’s all about numbers, but feels like a guessing game.
EU-US Tariff Negotiation Deadline (Tue):
So, the US and EU are on this deadline ride about trade tariffs. Trump’s given them till July 8th, threatening a 50% reciprocal tariff if they don’t agree. EU’s trying to negotiate better terms, especially for industries like cars and steel. They’re even eyeing sectors like pharma. Deadline pressure, big time! Some EU countries like Germany and Italy want a quick deal; Spain, however, is maybe a bit cautious due to Trump’s defense spending comments. Nobody really expects a complete breakdown, but hey, anything’s possible.
Chinese Inflation (Wed):
China’s having its inflation update on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected at zero, with PPI at -3.1%, staying in the negatives like it’s been for a while. Analysts think this gloom trend will hang around thanks to falling food prices. There’s this intense price competition driving PPI into the ground. Crackdown warnings have been issued. It’s a lot to digest, right?
RBNZ Announcement (Wed):
Jumping to New Zealand, they’re probably holding rates steady. Market odds are about 75% for no change. Inflation’s stable, and honestly, they want to see how previous cuts pan out. They’re taking a breather, trying to figure out what’s working and what’s not. This cautious vibe means data-driven decisions ahead.
FOMC Minutes (Wed):
In the US, the FOMC kept rates unchanged recently, but they’re hinting at rate cuts down the line. Inflation forecasts are up, but GDP projections are lower. Fed Chair Powell’s playing it safe, focusing on short-term predictions. He’s warning about tariff impacts and urging patience. But hey, no rush they say. Inflation is behaving, although job data is strong. Keeps the whole rate cut debate likable but distant for now.
US Liberation Day Deadline (Wed):
About those US tariffs, there’s this 90-day pause that’s ending Wednesday. Trump’s primed letters for countries with upcoming tariffs. Expect more trade deals before July 9th, but some countries remain on his tariff radar. It’s a tense game. For some, extensions might happen but expect some turbulence. Always a last-minute rush, right?
BoK Announcement (Thu):
In Korea, they’re deciding on a possible rate pause. Last meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. Governor Rhee hinted more cuts could happen due to growth risks. GDP numbers aren’t promising. Meanwhile, President Lee Jae-myung’s new policies could influence decisions here. It’s like everyone’s treading lightly with the current uncertainties.
Norwegian CPI (Thu):
Norway’s facing this cooling inflation trend, which led to a rate cut in June. The current look-ahead hints at possible further cuts, but only if inflation ticks upward. It’s like waiting for the next surprise, with energy prices being the wild card. Will it follow predictions? Time will tell.
UK GDP (Fri):
For UK GDP in May, the expectation is this tiny 0.1% growth after April’s drop. It’s a mixed bag, right? Services and real estate might perk things up, but retail and manufacturing seem down. On future tariffs, if they deflect the risk, growth may boost in H2. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. An earlier soft report might spark calls for another rate cut in August. We’ll see what unfolds.
Canadian Jobs Report (Fri):
Lastly, Canada’s watching their jobs data closely. With the BoC on standby, weak economic signs could hint at more rate cuts. Unemployment’s rising, with trade sectors affected by US tariffs. Governor Macklem’s worried about how firms are adjusting hiring due to tariffs. All eyes on jobs, knowing employment trends could change the landscape rapidly.
Anyway, that’s the chaotic whirlwind of global economic happenings!
