WTI crude oil has recently been making significant gains, propelled by the looming possibility of more sanctions on Russian oil. However, could escalating trade tensions make the triangle top act as a barrier?
I’m keeping a close eye on a few key turning points on the daily chart.
In case it slipped past you, U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin aren’t exactly on friendly terms at the moment, largely because of the ongoing tensions in Ukraine. Trump’s response to the situation has been to threaten additional tariffs on Russian oil, which in turn has pushed energy prices upward and tightened the global supply chain. As a result, WTI crude oil surged past the $70 a barrel mark earlier this week and might be looking at nearby resistance areas as its next target.
So, just how much further could it climb?
It’s crucial to remember that market trends and fluctuations often hinge on fundamental factors. If you haven’t caught up with the details on WTI crude and the U.S. dollar, now is the time to delve into the economic calendar and keep abreast of daily fundamental updates!
Oil bulls might aim for the resistance at the descending triangle around R2 at $76 per barrel or at least go for R1 at $73.67 per barrel, which hovers just above the dynamic inflection point of the 200 SMA. If the upward momentum holds, there might even be potential for breaking past the triangle’s top, opening the path to further bullish targets like R3 at $80.22 per barrel and eventually R4 at $84.42 per barrel.
However, proceed with caution. The 100 SMA is still trailing below the 200 SMA, hinting that the easiest route might still lead downward or that we could see the selloff restart. In that case, watch for movements back down to the triangle’s bottom near the pivot level at $69.46 per barrel and S1 at $67.12 per barrel.
Also, keep in mind that global trade tensions remain a significant factor as "Liberation Day" approaches. Retaliatory actions from U.S. trade partners could complicate the outlook for energy commodities such as crude oil.
Whatever stance you decide to take in trading, always employ sound risk management and stay vigilant about high-impact events that could sway market sentiment!
