Okay, so the Dow Jones, right? Took a little nosedive on Thursday, creeping under that 44,500 mark. It’s like it’s avoiding the party over at Big Tech that’s totally booming right now. Anyway, inflation and consumer income figures decided to jump up a notch in June, just to keep everyone on their toes. Classic, isn’t it?
Right, so the Dow Jones was being all moody on Thursday. That makes it four days straight of growling like a grumpy old man as the big players are freaking out over what the Federal Reserve might or might not do. Probably not gonna be cutting rate anytime soon—unless inflation decides to chill. But uh, spoiler alert—it’s not. Inflation’s throwing up all sorts of red flags like it’s trying to win a carnival game or something.
Meanwhile, US economic data is out there flexing like it’s got something to prove. Remember all those tariff dramas when Trump was calling the shots? Yeah, tariffs were announced, then delayed, then—oh wait, they’re back again! But the ones on steel, aluminum, and cars are already making a dent in those all-important inflation numbers. Fun times.
So, inflation ticks up—annoying, I know. Core US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) rose by 0.3% in June, just like everyone thought it would. On a yearly basis, it sped up to 2.6% instead of chilling at 2.5%. Also, consumer income went up 0.3% in June. Guess they’re facing more pressure to give people raises down the line.
And Friday’s about to throw US Nonfarm Payrolls into the mix. Those numbers—wow—everyone’s been jittery over them, especially since the Fed just sat on its hands about interest rates. PCE inflation’s been stubbornly hanging above that 2% Fed target for like four and a half years now, which is kind of a forever in economist years.
Speaking of drama, Trump’s been at it again with the tariffs. One more delay just for Mexico because, apparently, they’ve decided to play nice. But wait—Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico says, “Hold up, no extra steps from us needed.” So, there might be a little mix-up there. Who’s surprised?
Then there’s the usual from the Trump squad. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt doing her bit about trade deadlines with her fourth announcement of tariffs that might happen—again—since Trump took office. And almost without fail, Trump loves to swoop in with a delay or some vague deal that might not even exist yet.
And wouldn’t you know? US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had a moment of déjà vu, hinting that there’s almost a deal with China to dodge the tariffs slapping both ways. But uh… details? Nada—still teasing that same possible breakthrough for months now.
Alright, Dow Jones price forecast time—feels like I’m fortune-telling here. It’s flirted below 44,400 a couple of times this week, being a bit sulky with the fourth day of that bearish streak. Earlier, it almost hit a new high but yanked itself back down by almost 2% from Monday’s peak at 45,130.
Yet, even with all this dance drama, the Dow’s still looking kinda bullish, clinging onto 44,000. It could drop 1.4% more and still hang above that 50-day Exponential Moving Average chilling near 43,625.
Anyway… or was I supposed to say something else? Oh well, that’s the scoop.
