The U.S. Dollar’s doing that thing again—starting the week kinda strong, like, weirdly. Trade tensions are easing up or something, thanks to this new U.S.-EU deal they cooked up, and it’s got everyone a bit less freaked about a trade war across the pond. The Dollar Index, DXY if you’re into market stuff, shot up to around mid-98.00s. It’s kinda like breaking through that annoying final boss level on a game, getting past the 21-day EMA and turning a past foe at 97.80-98.00 into a friend. Or something.
Anyway—wait—so the Dollar, against whatever odds, is keeping its cool, which is odd ‘cause normally it lags behind when everyone’s high on optimism. The Fed’s acting like it’s gonna chill on interest rates, at least this week. Oh, and those trade deals everyone hurried to sign last week, thank goodness, are also playing a part here, keeping the markets on their toes ahead of that looming August 1 tariff deadline.
Now, about that Dollar Index, it keeps hopping up for three days straight, almost like it’s trying to finish a crazy dance routine without tripping. It climbed about 0.90% while America’s trading people cheer like it’s some breakthrough concert from the U.S.-EU trade jam session. Around 98.60 is where we’re hanging, which isn’t too shabby a spot since last week.
Trump and Ursula von der Leyen sealed the deal—sounds like a story on its own, right? Picture it: a brief summit at Trump’s golf paradise in Scotland. They settled on a 15% tariff on EU goodies like your go-to tech gear and meds, a major climb down from the looming 30%. Might be overanalyzed by some newsy folks, but hey, report says some “zero-for-zero” extra agreements are up in the sky for parts and tech sectors and random other goodies.
And oh boy, the EU’s promising a mountain of cash for U.S. LNG, keeping the cash tap flowing at $250 billion a year for three years. That’s a heck of a lot of LNG, right? They’re also chucking $600 billion into U.S. industrial ventures. Steel and aluminum? Those tariffs are sticking at 50%, but whispers of a future quota system are in the air—cross your fingers on that one.
Market shakers, here we go: Trade optimism is pumping the vibes, but people are walking around gingerly, eyeing that looming Fed decision like it’s the end of the world. Trump was chatting up Keir Starmer at the golf club, swinging between trade, Ukraine’s woes, and the lot. The main focus? Steel tariffs—Starmer wants relief, Trump’s like “nah, no dice, buddy.”
Crude oil’s doing a sprint of its own ’cause Trump upped the heat on Russia, Putin on a 50-day timer to sort out Ukraine’s mess, or so they say. Trump was all “biggest deal in history” hype around the U.S.-EU trade spectacle, EU’s shelling out for U.S. goods—and risky assets go wild.
Von der Leyen dubs the tight negotiations a win. German voices cheer, but there’s a French grumble, a Hungarian headshake, and a Belgian hinting Trump had her for breakfast. Politics, right? Now it’s up to the EU to weave it through protocol hoops in legislative dance.
Upcoming? U.S.-China trade talks in Sweden, aiming to hold off tariff tantrums. U.S. Commerce is drawing a red line before August 1, so no slacking there—make deals or face the music.
Oh, the week’s got a packed schedule: Consumer confidence, job openings, employment numbers. It’s a market rodeo, so hang tight.
Technical things: The Dollar Index’s got some rebound action from a mini slump. It tackled a falling wedge—yeah, sounds mysterious—a bullish signal they’re watching closely. It’s hovering around 98.40 for now, with key markers at 97.80 and 98.51. RSI and MACD speak of early bullish whispers, but it’s all still a work in progress.
So, if you’re flipping through this mess, expecting perfect sense—oops, sorry—not today!
