After several weeks languishing beneath the crucial $100,000 benchmark, Bitcoin has kicked off 2025 with a fresh wave of bullish energy. Recently stuck in a slump since last month, the cryptocurrency is demonstrating signs of recovery, reclaiming the $100,000 mark today for the first time in weeks.
Coming into the new year, Bitcoin found itself trading between $93,000 and $95,000, but it’s now back with a vengeance, trading at $102,368. Over the last 24 hours, it has climbed 4.5%, inching closer to its all-time high of $108,000 which it reached towards the end of 2024.
This positive shift is sparking optimism among both retail and institutional investors. Many are closely monitoring market indicators to determine whether Bitcoin can maintain this momentum or if another downturn might be in store.
When examining Bitcoin’s short-term price dynamics, insights from CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent are quite enlightening. Dent highlighted the significance of the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders (STH), which serves as a notable breakeven point.
The Realized Price denotes the average amount paid by short-term Bitcoin holders, divided into two main groups: those holding from one week to one month (1W-1M) and from one month to three months (1M-3M).
Historically, the 1M-3M band has provided medium-term support, while the 1W-1M band reflects short-term market sentiment. When the distance between these two bands grows, Bitcoin often enters phases of consolidation or correction until they realign.
Currently, Bitcoin is facing resistance at the 1W-1M band. Nevertheless, the 1M-3M band offers robust support, hinting at a possible opportunity for medium-term investors to accumulate.
Dent stressed that keeping an eye on how these two bands interact is crucial for spotting market trends. As they narrow, Bitcoin could enter a period of relative stability before its next major price movement.
Another perspective from CryptoQuant analyst Joohyun Ryu sheds light on Bitcoin’s recent correction phase. Although the market seemed to be cooling down, key indicators point toward a potential rebound.
Key metrics like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) provide valuable insights into the market’s mood.
The MVRV ratio is currently at 2.358, suggesting Bitcoin trades at a moderate premium over its realized value. In a similar vein, the aSOPR, clocking in at 1.02, indicates that Bitcoin transactions are, on average, still profitable.
Moreover, the NUPL figure of 0.58 gauges a market sentiment that remains optimistic despite recent price fluctuations. Ryu noted the steadfast participation of short-term holders, who remain active despite recent market volatility.
The steady influx of new investors signals growing trust in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Historically, such investor behavior has foreshadowed significant price surges, backing the idea that recent market cooldowns might be laying the groundwork for a breakout.
Inspired image created using DALL-E, with chart data sourced from TradingView.
