Crime stories evoke a familiar set of emotions: shock, sympathy, horror, outrage, morbid curiosity, and fear. Yet, there’s something uniquely captivating about a heist. Unexpectedly, you find yourself cheering for the crook in these tales—admiring their brilliance and skill. Imagine a semi-retired thief skillfully scaling a drainpipe in full view of five sleeping dogs and making a clean getaway with the loot. You wonder if he’ll escape justice, if he even should. It’s no longer a mere thriller; it’s a novel rich in moral ambiguity.
Take, for instance, the recent heist in Primrose Hill, north London, which has stirred quite the media frenzy. Over £10 million in jewelry and £150,000 worth of designer handbags vanished in a single, daring move from a Hong Kong socialite’s home. The story involves a roof, a blowtorch, a stealthy crawl along a concrete gutter, close calls with a live-in governess, and the uncanny ability to perch on a sink without knocking over a single cosmetic item. A family spokesperson described the burglar on BBC footage as moving “like a cat.” The hunt for this elusive suspect is now underway.
What’s intriguing about this story is how rare such crimes have become today. You might recall the Hatton Garden heist, where a group of elderly thieves known as the “Diamond Geezers” made off with £14 million in valuables back in 2015. That caper was so outlandish it inspired two movies. In the 1990s, London witnessed bank robberies almost daily, but by 2020, there were only 58 in the entire UK.
This decline is part of a larger, often overlooked trend. Crime rates are plummeting. The Crime Survey for England and Wales shows a drop from 19,786 incidents in 1995 to just 4,722 in 2024. The latest data from the Office of National Statistics indicates crime is at an all-time low in England and Wales. Burglary rates have declined a significant 70% since records began in 2003. While fraud and computer misuse have risen, domestic violence and car theft have seen dramatic decreases over the past three decades, mirroring trends in other affluent nations.
Why the drop? A big reason seems to be that many crimes are simply harder to commit now, particularly “opportunistic” ones. Cars have advanced locking and immobilization systems, homes feature reinforced door frames and enhanced security systems, and the widespread use of cameras and DNA databases serve as additional deterrents. Only the most adept burglars stand a chance, leaving little room for inept youths to dabble in crime. There’s also less motivation for break-ins; electronics like TVs and stereo systems are more affordable and less desirable now. Plus, as society moves toward a cashless environment, there’s simply less tangible money to attract thieves.
Supporting this is the fact that when certain crimes do spike, like phone theft and shoplifting, it’s usually because they’ve become more convenient to commit. People engrossed in their phones while walking make easy targets for cyclists looking for a quick snatch. Although big supermarkets have increased some security measures, they’ve relaxed others; self-service checkouts and reduced staff often make it easier for petty thefts to occur.
So why doesn’t it feel like crime is dropping? According to Ipsos Mori, 61% of Brits believe crime has actually risen. A YouGov poll suggests that crime concerns have heightened over the past three years, with 20% of people recently naming it as the country’s most pressing issue. Crime may be down, but perception tells a different tale.
One factor is media coverage, which spotlights shocking or unusual crimes. Instead of seeing these stories as anomalies, we might interpret them as evidence of frequent crime. Politicians might also intensify the threat. For instance, just recently, Donald Trump declared the US is “breaking down” with violence, contradicting data showing a decline in violent crime and murder in 2024. The UK Labour party has similarly campaigned on reclaiming the streets, emphasizing decreasing antisocial behavior over the last thirty years.
Good intentions can muddy perceptions too. Advocates pushing for more investment in the justice system might fear that noting falling crime rates could lead governments to focus less on policing and prevention. But if we don’t acknowledge the success, we risk missing important lessons. If improved security measures are effective, how do we enhance them further? How can successful strategies for deterring home burglaries be adapted for public spaces like department stores?
Falling crime rates also challenge preconceived notions about its causes. Conservatives once feared the decline of the nuclear family and rise of video games would lead to a crime surge—incorrectly. Similarly, the left has posited that lawbreaking climbs with inequality, yet that link doesn’t hold either. Interestingly, harsher sentences don’t appear to correlate with crime reduction, as seen in the Netherlands, which has shortened prison terms while still witnessing a decrease in crime.
Amidst all the noise, vital patterns might slip by unnoticed. As crime rates fall overall, it’s increasingly evident a small segment of the populace suffers disproportionately. Offenders often repeatedly target vulnerable groups—for domestic violence, sexual abuse, shoplifting, and burglary. In focusing on overall crime rates, policymakers and law enforcement might overlook these “repeat victims.” While many may never experience the headline-grabbing crimes, for some individuals, it’s a different, more troubling reality.
Martha Gill is a columnist with the Observer.
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