Years ago, a friend of mine who had just taken on a senior role in foreign policy shared a revelation with me about what he learned in the government. He said, “I once believed policy-making was 75% about relationships. Now, I understand it’s 95% about relationships.”
Taking on significant challenges is nearly impossible when working solo. That’s why smart leaders and nations rely heavily on relationships that are forged on common values, shared histories, and mutual trust. They form alliances to tackle today’s monumental issues, including the pivotal question of whether the 21st century will be a Chinese or an American era.
China has several strong cards to play, but America used to hold a critical advantage: more global allies. Unfortunately, recent weeks have seen America shatter many of those crucial relationships.
President Trump seems either unaware or unconcerned that breaking trust or toying with allies leads to resentment. Over recent weeks, European sentiment has shifted from shock to disbelief, culminating in disdain. For them, this period has been a harsh awakening, similar to the impact of 9/11 on the U.S. They’ve come to see America—the ally they thought dependable—as a rogue superpower.
In countries like Canada and Mexico, criticizing the U.S. gains popularity. Looking ahead, it’s likely that Trump might strike a deal with China at the expense of Taiwan, much like his dealings with Ukraine. Asian nations will likely reach the same conclusion as Europe: America cannot be trusted.
This isn’t solely a Trump problem; the damage to America’s reputation is extensive. Even if someone like Abraham Lincoln were to assume office in 2029, no foreign leader could reliably trust a country that’s perpetually just an election away from installing another authoritarian figure.
What’s next?
NATO’s role is dwindling. Joe Biden put in effort defending the postwar liberal order, birthed from specific historical contexts. Post-World War I isolationism led to the atrocities of World War II, while post-World War II internationalism ushered in decades of peace among superpowers. Telling this story to the younger generations often gains you blank stares, as if you’re recounting tales from the medieval ages. The postwar era was monumental, but it’s a relic, and we’re not going back. Channeling historical figures like Dean Acheson isn’t going to help; it’s time to envision a new global framework.
The concept of “The West” is in a lull. This idea has been a longstanding discourse—spanning back to Socrates’ quest for truth, Rembrandt’s embodiment of compassion, Locke’s development of enlightenment liberalism, and Bacon’s scientific method. This legacy formed America’s identity as the pinnacle of Western achievements. The transatlantic ties reflect this notion. Yet, it appears that this idea doesn’t resonate with Trump, who is severing America’s spiritual and intellectual ties to it. Concluding the initiative Jesse Jackson began in 1987, Trump has distanced the nation from its Western roots.
Today’s global struggle pits hard against soft. This isn’t complex strategy. Trump’s foreign policy seems driven by whatever sparks his interest. He has always had an affinity for strong, dominant personas. In his MAGA worldview, figures like Putin represent strength and decisiveness, while Western Europe is viewed as weak. Similar comparisons include Elon Musk as a symbol of strength, while U.S.A.I.D. and universities represent the opposite.
Europe faces a crossroads: reinvent or become irrelevant. There’s the possibility of Europe becoming a quaint destination with low growth and innovation, but many Europeans recognize this is their chance to establish independence from American security. Germany’s ramping up defense capabilities, while former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi remarked that fragmented markets squash tech innovation. Critics doubt Europe’s secular leanings and decadence will allow for recovery, but countries like Germany, France, and the UK have rich histories of resilience.
The dawn of nuclear proliferation looms. As the U.S. retracts its security guarantees, nations—from Poland to potentially Japan—may seek nuclear arsenals. The consequences are unpredictable.
China seeks to fill the void. As America alienates its friends, China aims to woo them. The Chinese representative to the EU recently criticized U.S. policies toward Europe as appalling, urging European nations to notice China’s emphasis on peace and cooperation. While skepticism remains, as countries face two unpredictable superpowers—America and China—they might find it strategic to align with both.
Cultural conflicts are global. Surveys have shown Western Europe and some parts of America drifting toward hyper-individualistic cultures, a stark contrast to other parts of the world. This cultural divergence inevitably leads to political tensions. Some MAGA proponents admire Putin because he represents an ideological ally against cosmopolitan cultural ideas at places like Columbia University.
A resurgence of national pride could loom. History hasn’t halted. As Robert Kagan observes, America swings between isolation and global engagement, individualism and community, skepticism and optimism. We’re currently skewed toward the former in all categories.
Inevitably, the shortcomings of Trump’s leadership will invite a strong counterresponse, potentially paving the way for renewal. When this shift occurs, people might be open to a reality Trump fails to grasp—that turning America into a hub of opportunism might yield quick gains from weaker parties but will ultimately deteriorate the vital relationships that bolster America’s enduring strength.
