Sure thing, let’s dive into the chaos of human thought, shall we?
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So, the other day, Jerome Powell—you know, the big cheese over at the Federal Reserve—was chatting away in front of the House Financial folks on Capitol Hill. This was like June 24, 2025, so not ancient history or anything. I saw this pic, and gotta say, Powell looked like he had a lot on his mind. Who wouldn’t? The world’s a bit of a mess.
So Powell was basically like, if it hadn’t been for Trump’s tariff stuff, the Fed would’ve chilled out on monetary policy ages ago. Someone asked if the Fed would’ve cut rates this year sans Trump’s move. Powell seemed to agree, saying “I think that’s right.” Those tariffs sure messed with inflation forecasts, huh?
Anyway, Powell was in Portugal at some European Central Bank gig when he spilled the beans. The Fed’s been kind of just sitting tight on interest rates because, shocker, there’s pressure from everywhere, especially the White House.
Last month, the borrowing rate didn’t budge, hanging tight between 4.25% to 4.5%, like it has been since December. There’s this thing called the dot plot (sounds like a sci-fi gadget, right?) showing predictions for two rate cuts by the end of 2025. But Powell said they’re in a wait-and-see mode—for now.
Someone threw him a curveball about a rate cut in July and he was all, “I really can’t say.” It’s like, data, data, and more data. Markets are thinking there’s a 76% chance the rates won’t budge in July. Thanks, CME FedWatch tool, whoever you are.
“We’re taking it meeting by meeting,” Powell said—don’t you love non-answers? He wasn’t committing to anything, which, let’s be real, is the safest bet.
Oh, and about Powell’s future at the Fed? Trump wasn’t exactly sending him roses. Called him “terrible” and “very average mentally”—ouch. When asked if he’d stick around as governor after his chair gig ends in ’26, Powell didn’t say much. His quiet way of saying “let’s not go there today.”
There was more drama, with global trade stuff hogging the spotlight. Leaders from all over the map were there, dealing with questions about standing in Powell’s shoes or how nations are veering away from the U.S.
Trump’s tariff antics have been like a yo-yo. He announced wild tariffs in April, then pressed pause when markets freaked out. The stock market did its magic, bouncing back with the S&P 500 hitting highs—what a rollercoaster.
Powell just wants things stable, kind of like everyone else with a brain. “How do we get that done?” he mused. That’s the stuff that keeps him up at night. He’d love to leave things in good shape for whoever takes the reins next.
And that’s the gist of it. Or, at least, that’s the ride we’re on right now. Crazy times, huh?
