In a bustling supermarket in Rockville, Maryland, on a summer day in July 2025, folks went about their shopping. Meanwhile, a buzz was stirring among Social Security experts about next year’s cost-of-living adjustment. The talk is that folks getting Social Security might see a 2.7% bump in their benefits come 2026, thanks to some fresh inflation numbers.
Back in 2025, people saw a 2.5% increase, so if this guess holds up, it’s going to be a bit better. Every year, Social Security checks out the inflation scene to make sure benefits keep pace with rising costs. They usually spill the official beans sometime in October about what next year will bring.
This prediction comes from Mary Johnson, who knows a lot about Social Security and Medicare, and the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan group watching out for older folks. They’re all looking at the same July inflation report to make their call. More data from August and September will seal the deal on the final number.
In July, Johnson was thinking 2.7% while the Senior Citizens League was a tad lower at 2.6%. Over the last couple of decades, the average COLA has been around 2.6%, according to the League.
Social Security figures this stuff out by looking at inflation data from July, August, and September, comparing it to the same months last year. They use something called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, CPI-W for short, to do the math.
Just recently, the consumer price index showed a 2.7% hike over a year, according to July’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI-W, specifically, went up by 2.5%. Tariffs haven’t made a big splash in these numbers yet, but they’re showing up in things like home goods. If they get more noticeable, it might tweak the 2026 adjustment a bit.
