I noticed a sign above an empty shelf in a Queens, New York supermarket, and it immediately painted a vivid picture of the current situation. Inflation is a hot topic these days, and egg prices have skyrocketed, partly due to a bird flu outbreak that’s causing trouble and a bit of panic in the market. Experts warn that shoppers could be in for a shock during their next grocery run.
Just recently, the average wholesale price for large, white eggs spiked to $8 a dozen, a significant increase over the previous record. To put it in perspective, back in December 2022, prices hit a high around $5.46 per dozen. This new peak is a big leap, as highlighted by Ryan Hojnowski, a market reporter at Expana, who noted how we’ve significantly surpassed previous records. According to Hojnowski, it might take a few weeks for these wholesale price surges to impact the prices we see in retail stores. Retail price adjustments can differ from store to store, depending on how they handle fluctuations in wholesale costs.
Now, why such a steep hike in egg prices? Well, bird flu is primarily to blame, say economists. Even though inflation in other areas has cooled slightly in the U.S., the egg sector hasn’t been as fortunate. Retailers like Trader Joe’s and Costco have even limited egg purchases due to the soaring costs. Waffle House, for instance, is charging an extra 50 cents per egg, reflecting the financial strain these establishments face. The Wall Street Journal shared how some local spots, like Storm’s Drive-In in Texas and Kroll’s Diner in Fargo, North Dakota, have had to up their egg dish prices. This December, consumers found themselves paying about $4.15 on average for a dozen large, grade A eggs, which is steep even though it’s lower than the January 2023 high of $4.82.
Bird flu, scientifically known as “highly pathogenic avian influenza,” plays a significant role here. The disease has wreaked havoc, killing millions of chickens and seriously impacting egg supplies. Outbreak protocol requires farmers to cull entire flocks if there’s even a single case detected, further aggravating the supply issue. Last year saw more than 40 million egg-laying hens culled, roughly 13% of the national flock, says Amy Smith from Advanced Economic Solutions. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture reveals that current egg inventories are 15% to 16% below the five-year average, leaving the supply chain stretched thin.
Around 22 million egg-laying hens were lost in just the fourth quarter of 2024, right around the holiday season when higher egg demand typically kicks in. With such a thin supply against robust seasonal demand, wholesale prices naturally soared to three or four times what they were just a year ago.
That said, not all shoppers will witness these price surges as significantly at their local stores. Retail giants like Walmart and Aldi have more leverage to absorb increases without immediately passing the extra costs to consumers, as noted by Hojnowski. They can draw on robust margins from other products or rely on fixed-price contracts for part of their egg supply. Smaller retailers, however, lacking such economies of scale, might have to raise prices more swiftly to stay afloat.
Interestingly, the bird flu hasn’t severely affected chicken meat prices just yet. Retail egg prices have shot up 170% from December 2019 to December 2024, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, but chicken prices for both whole and boneless meat have risen more modestly – around 42% and 32%, respectively, which is more in line with overall inflation during that period. It turns out that egg-producing chickens are different from meat-producing ones, or “broilers,” and this distinction has somewhat shielded broilers from the worst of the epidemic.
That’s not to say bird flu hasn’t touched these farms at all. Since last October, about 7.5 million broilers have succumbed to the disease. But with more than 20 million egg-layers lost in the same time frame, the disparity in impact is clear, notes Matt Busardo from Expana. Although wholesale chicken prices have incrementally risen and are set for potential increases, they may not climb as sharply as egg prices – at least for now.
