Alright, so here goes nothing. Imagine the Dow Jones, you know, that big ol’ number that tells us how the stock market’s feelin’—well, it took a little hop upwards on Friday. I guess people weren’t freaking out too much about the sorta dismal report from that University of Michigan thingy about consumer sentiment. I mean, seriously, who asked UoM to get all doom-and-gloomy?
Anyway, it seems investors have their fingers crossed for some more words of wisdom from the Trump team on trade stuff. Honestly, it’s like everyone’s waiting for a sign from the sky or something to tell us what’s next on this rollercoaster.
So, the UoM Sentiment thing dipped down to 50.8. Yeah, lower than before, and folks aren’t stoked about it. Economic futures? Psh, everyone’s outlook is basically in the dumps. People thought maybe consumers were feeling optimistic, but nope, seems like Wall Street and your random Joe have a bit of a disconnect. Inflation expectations are out there climbing like a squirrel up a tree, with numbers at like 7.3% and 4.6% for one-year and five-year thoughts, respectively. Who sees these numbers and actually stays calm? Not me.
Oh, about these tariffs, they’re just hanging over everything like a dark cloud. I mean, the whole inflation bit—it’s like businesses see the rising expectations and think, “Hey, let’s jack up the prices while everyone’s bracing for it!” US inflation data played nice this week, sorta, giving us a sigh of relief for a hot minute. But still, it’s like we don’t know how long it takes for these policy thingamajigs to actually show themselves in the data. The tariffs, they say, are still gonna haunt us like some spooky ghost.
Fitch Ratings dropped a nugget saying our Effective Tariff Rate—don’t worry if you don’t really know what that is, I had to Google it too—hit about 13% because of all these trade shenanigans. Before this mess, it was just 2.5%. On China alone, it’s sitting over 30%. Yikes.
Trump’s got this habit of dangling damaging policy changes over our heads and then snatching them away at the last second. Like, thanks? But seriously, nobody knows what they’re gonna do next! Traders are sort of crossing fingers for some solid yes-or-no answers, but it’s like waiting for a cat to decide if it wants to be inside or outside. It’s frustratingly indefinite.
Oh, the Dow made its way back to 42,500, which, let me tell you, is a big deal since it got walloped earlier this year. Markets went all “emergency brake” during the first quarter, plummeting down to 36,600. Been climbing slowly but surely since then, and now we’re here in 2025.
Momentum’s pushing things back up over some fancy EMA line near 41,500. It bounced back up 16.25%, they say. But you know how it goes—nothing’s certain. Resistance at 42,800? Check. Support at 42,000? Probably.
Oh boy, charts. They can tell stories, but sometimes they’re about as interesting as watching paint dry. Anyway, Michigan’s got their Consumer Sentiment Index. It’s all about taking the nation’s emotional temperature on their finances, business vibes, and whether folks feel like buying stuff. If they’re optimistic, yay for the US Dollar; if not, it sinks a bit.
I don’t know. But if this Index is anything to go by, people aren’t exactly rushing to spend right now. Guess we’ll just have to keep our ears open for any new bits of news—or gossip. That’s about it.
