Sure, here it is:
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So, Trump’s fired the BLS dude in charge of the employment report. Or something like that. Anyway, Axios did this rundown on how the whole BLS shebang works. Here’s my take — hopefully, I don’t lose you halfway:
Alright, they pop open this jobs report on the first Friday every month — like clockwork! 8:30 a.m. ET. Why Friday? No clue, maybe it’s because people chill more that day.
They do this quick snapshot thingy, using surveys from 629,000 worksites. Imagine that. But — and here’s the kicker — it’s not super sharp. Like, if you’re expecting 4K Ultra HD, nah. This one’s more like, uh, early 2000s YouTube quality? They clean it up later after fixing the bugs, though.
So yeah, revisions happen because, well, some businesses take their sweet time sending the info. And if a big-shot company forgets to send their data, it’s a big mess. They have to revise, adjust for holidays and snow days, because seriously, who doesn’t get disrupted by a blizzard?
Population changes shake things up too. Like when immigration policies do a 180. And let’s not forget annual revisions. Ever found out your report card wasn’t as good as you thought? Kinda like that, but with job numbers. One year they thought there were 818,000 jobs added — turns out, not really!
Since forever ago (like, 1979), these updates have been happening. Nothing shady, they say. Just math. But numbers can feel like wobbly Jell-O sometimes. One day it says one thing, the next — whoop, completely different!
So, just recently, they went back and chopped May’s numbers. From 144K to 19K. Ouch! June wasn’t spared either. Those three months — turned out not so shiny. Just 35K on average. Surprise.
Fed Chair Powell? He was chill about it. Waiting for more reports like an unbothered cat. And those future “informed” reports? Past revisions! Oh, irony you sly thing.
Now, if upcoming reports showed just 35K, could’ve meant rate cuts — tempting stuff for the Fed. Imagine if they’d known that earlier in July.
But hey, I reckon these aren’t cooked up changes. It’s data doing its chaotic dance. Makes me wonder though, is there a slicker way to handle this info rollercoaster?
Oh, then there’s ADP, the private payroll wizard. Their numbers echoed this whole revised tune — 37K for May, down 33K in June. July sprung back with 104K. Turns out, their average — surprise, surprise — was 36K. Déjà vu much?
Despite their different flavors of gathering data, they vibed in the end. ADP’s method maybe feels more in-the-now? If it’s not some bizarre trick, I’m thinking, shift in data collection might be the game changer. Less daggers at the BLS, more real-time payroll data?
Anyway, time’s got the answers. For now, ADP’s 36K is eerily close to BLS’s revised numbers. Maybe, just maybe, they’ve got the real beat of the job market, without tinkering too much with the scales. Right?
