Amidst the current political landscape, the notion of staying calm without succumbing to panic feels as relevant as ever. Labour supporters who casually suggest we shouldn’t panic about polls showing Reform ahead of their party, with the Tories trailing, might have a point. It’s not time to run around like headless chickens just yet. After all, the next UK general election isn’t due until the middle of 2029. The polls we see today don’t exactly provide a crystal-clear view of the political climate years from now. Voters aligning with Reform are more likely expressing dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Tories rather than wholeheartedly endorsing Nigel Farage as their preferred leader.
Currently, the horizon looks slightly less daunting for Sir Keir Starmer compared to Kemi Badenoch. A Labour strategist highlights that while Reform isn’t ideal for Labour, it’s a bigger existential threat to the Tories. A recent YouGov poll revealed that 20% of Tories from the 2024 election would now swing towards Reform — a chilling prospect for the Conservatives, especially as their major donors start drifting away. Today’s Opinium poll paints an even bleaker picture, showing Tory support dipping lower than the levels seen in last summer’s election. “Each time it seems like things can’t possibly get worse, they do,” laments a Conservative MP. For Mrs. Badenoch to maintain any hope of leading her factional party, she needs to assure her peers that she can outmaneuver Reform to become Labour’s primary right-wing rival. Currently, Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, is boasting, “We have momentum, and the Tories are now slicing up our vote.”
The growing ranks of Labour figures feel increasingly uneasy, realizing they can’t just ignore Reform forever. A seasoned Labour veteran candidly told me that both major parties are in the “last chance saloon.” Seeing the hard-right’s rise across Europe, why should Britain be the exception? Interestingly, with Tory leadership lacking and Labour’s approval ratings nose-diving, the real question is why Reform isn’t doing better. Despite much of Farage’s support seeming like protest votes, Labour can’t afford complacency, especially in the 89 seats where Reform candidates were close seconds. Labour MPs with narrow margins grow nervous, not least because of the hostile commentary from Reform advocates flooding their social media. To counter this, some MPs, like Blackpool South’s Chris Webb, are even seeking exposure on GB News, viewing it as a crucial channel to engage with voters.
In the midst of these challenges, Labour staffers and strategists are investing significant time developing tactics to counter Reform. The subject even dominated a six-hour cabinet meeting at Lancaster House. A minister confided post-meeting that there’s no single silver bullet solution. “Honestly, we’re still working on it.” Previously, the prevailing thought was that Reform posed a greater threat to the Conservatives, thereby splitting the right-wing vote and aiding Labour. Engaging their leader directly supposedly only brought him more attention. However, voices like Wes Streeting are signaling a shift towards a more confrontational stance, with the health secretary recently delivering a speech targeting Farage’s gloomy narrative of Britain.
Farage portrays himself as the anti-establishment challenger fighting the status quo imposed by the old parties. Yet, a recent fundraising event organized at a posh Mayfair club with Dom Pérignon on tap paints a different picture, with access to him costing £25,000 per seat—more than many of his Clacton constituents earn annually. This disparity, while amusing, likely won’t diminish support for his populist narrative, much like attempts to undermine Trump’s credibility fell flat.
Within Labour circles, some argue the party should position itself against the status quo, portraying the government as insurgents. Morgan McSweeney, a significant figure behind Labour’s election victory and now chief of staff at Number 10, advocates this view. The Prime Minister stressed the need for a less cautious government at the Lancaster House meeting, urging senior ministers to either be disruptors or face being disrupted. Yet the challenge lies in not appearing too establishment, especially with a knighted lawyer leading the charge. As one cabinet member put it, “We need to be changemakers,” but acknowledged that a total teardown doesn’t align with Labour’s identity. In battling Farageism, focusing solely on who’s more anti-establishment may not play in Labour’s favor.
A potentially effective strategy might be to scrutinize Farage’s beliefs and policies, something he’s not used to. Recently, Labour has highlighted his stance on healthcare, specifically his suggestion to shift to an insurance-based model. Sir Keir drew cheers during a PMQs session for criticizing Reform’s leader over plans “to charge [his constituents] for using the NHS.” According to a Labour strategist, “His NHS views are like kryptonite to Farage. Present them to Labour voters, and they retreat.”
Farage also advocates for an even stricter Brexit than Boris Johnson’s currently unpopular deal. His economic proposals deserve more investigation, considering he was an avid supporter of Liz Truss’s ill-fated fiscal policies. His hallmark is anti-immigration rhetoric, raising contentious debates within Labour about how aggressively they should respond. A new pressure group within Labour, comprising MPs from vulnerable seats, urges Sir Keir to adopt a firmer stance on immigration. They cheer on the party’s Reform-style Facebook ads highlighting governmental deportation efforts. However, this approach might unsettle other Labour members.
Ultimately, beating Reform requires more than just sharper critiques. Farage thrives on voter dissatisfaction with the nation’s stagnant economy and failing public services, similarly to how he gained traction before the Brexit referendum. Immigration forms part of the discontent, but the cost of living and healthcare systems are major factors too. Addressing these issues is vital to countering his appeal. It’s not enough to label Reform’s ideas as flawed; Labour must show it can deliver meaningful improvements.
Andrew Rawnsley is the Chief Political Commentator of the Observer.
