When President Trump introduced significant new tariffs on Wednesday, one notable economy he left untouched was Russia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained to Fox News that Moscow was excluded due to ongoing sanctions imposed after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which have essentially halted U.S.-Russian trade. Along with Russia, North Korea, Cuba, and Belarus, also under heavy sanctions, were not included in the new tariff measures.
However, trade data reveals a more nuanced picture. Since the invasion, the value of U.S. trade with Russia has plummeted to its lowest in decades. Despite this decline, Russia managed to export roughly $3 billion in goods to the U.S. last year, primarily fertilizers and platinum, according to U.S. statistics. This figure notably surpasses the U.S. imports from smaller nations like Laos and Fiji, which were targeted by the new tariffs, raising questions about whether sparing Russia was part of a strategic decision by the White House.
Recently, President Trump hinted at imposing tariffs on Russian oil buyers, a crucial revenue stream for Russia’s military efforts, if President Putin failed to cooperate with U.S. peace efforts in Ukraine. Such tariffs would pose significant challenges to Russia’s international trade.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin and a former Russian central bank official, suggests that Trump might be using potential economic restrictions on Russia as leverage in peace negotiations. “I think it’s a political decision,” she noted, implying that Trump is cautious not to escalate tensions amidst ongoing talks with Putin.
The idea of using tariffs as diplomatic leverage is further evidenced by Trump’s approach to Iran, another focus of his negotiation efforts. Iran was placed in the lowest tariff tier at 10 percent, which is lower than the rate applied to Israel, a steadfast ally of the U.S.
The nature of Russia’s exports to the U.S. could also have influenced the decision. As one of the largest foreign suppliers of fertilizer to American markets, Russia has seen an uptick in exports of this commodity over the past year.
Trump has been contemplating ways to shield American farmers, a crucial voter base, from the fallout of trade disputes. Maintaining affordable fertilizer prices could be a key aspect of this strategy.
