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Recently, Saudi Arabia has been having a productive stretch, effectively seizing several opportunities in a Middle East landscape undergoing significant shifts after the October 7 massacre by Hamas, as well as Israel’s prolonged military engagements in Gaza and Lebanon. However, a recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House stirred things up quite a bit.
Just over the weekend, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman welcomed the new interim President of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to Riyadh. This is a notable change, considering Riyadh had hosted Bashar al-Assad, who is now residing in exile in Moscow, only three months earlier. Previously, Saudi Arabia had been cautious in its re-engagement with Assad after backing the rebellion against him since 2011.
The weakening of Assad owed much to Israel’s military maneuvers, which impacted Iran and its affiliates. As the Syrian rebel faction, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, advanced from Idlib towards Damascus, Assad found himself short on allies to turn to for rescue. Unlike Egypt and the UAE, who hesitated, Saudi Arabia was quick to step into the void left by Iran and Hizbollah. This approach contrasts with the aftermath of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq when most Arab states, upset with Washington, opted against fully engaging with the new Iraqi administration, allowing Tehran to gain influence.
In Lebanon, Hizbollah maintained a firm grip since the 2005 assassination of Saudi ally Rafiq Hariri, a former prime minister. By 2017, Saudi Arabia had distanced itself from Lebanon. However, recent Israeli military actions diminished Hizbollah’s power significantly, leading to the loss of its top leaders. Just two weeks ago, marking its first high-level visit in 15 years, the top Saudi diplomat was in Beirut after the kingdom, France, and others urged Lebanon to elect a new president.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia skillfully maintained a cautious relationship with its longtime rival, Iran, ever since the Iran-Saudi détente began in March 2023. With a desire to avert further conflict, especially considering the threat of Iranian missiles, Saudi leadership welcomed Trump’s latest remarks on Iran. While Trump’s policy might hint at maximum pressure, his endgame seems to revolve around striking a deal, something Riyadh wouldn’t mind if it neutralizes their adversary while fortifying its own defenses in partnership with the US, aiming for normal diplomatic connections with Israel.
The intricate Middle Eastern dynamics now present a puzzle—Gaza lies devastated, the Israeli far right is emboldened, and an American president appears to view conflicts through the lens of property deals, even if they breach international law. With Iran possibly weakened throughout the region, Saudi Arabia finds a unique opportunity to exert influence, though this presents challenges of a distinctly different scale.
Last week, Trump raised eyebrows suggesting Jordan and Egypt could absorb Gaza’s Palestinians—a proposal akin to ethnic cleansing. In response, Arab ministers cautioned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio against deportations. Jordan went so far as to say it would consider it an act of war. Sitting beside Netanyahu, Trump later suggested transforming Gaza into a new Riviera.
In swift response, Saudi Arabia issued a firm statement reaffirming its stance on establishing a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, clarified that the idea behind the proposal was to push Arab countries into crafting their own solutions for Gaza. Yet, peace plans have been put forth by Arab nations since 2002, with Netanyahu’s administration often seen as an obstacle to post-conflict developments.
Should Trump believe that conceding territory from Israel to the US will pressure Netanyahu, he might want to reconsider. Legally, it’s a non-issue, and Congress is unlikely to greenlight deploying Americans to a war zone for reconstruction. Instead, Trump’s comments breathed new life into an Israeli far-right vision: a Gaza void of Palestinians.
The player with significant influence now is Saudi Arabia, and the crown prince should recall the strategic leverage he holds: Trump is keen on securing a massive Saudi investment in the US and in seeing oil prices drop. The balance Saudi Arabia seeks between securing a defense agreement with Trump, normalizing ties with Israel—whom they have accused of genocide—and fulfilling the promise of a Palestinian state involves navigating an exceptionally complex diplomatic path under the unpredictable leadership style of the current US president. Success in this endeavor could bring immense rewards, though the risks remain profound both for Saudi Arabia and the broader region.
