In recent weeks, tensions have been simmering between Keir Starmer’s UK Labour and its Welsh counterpart. For those residing in Wales, this might have caught your attention; for others, it might have slipped under the radar. But mark my words, it’s a story of significance. For the people in Wales, it holds the keys to their future. For the broader UK, it’s a harbinger of political shifts over the next five years, with potential implications for the union’s fate.
So, what’s at the heart of the issue? It has largely centered on the UK government’s proposed benefits cuts. These changes, particularly to Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit, will undoubtedly sting across England but will hit Wales even harder. Wales counts 275,000 PIP recipients among its populace, equating to 11% of its working-age population, whereas in England, that figure is only 7%. It’s a political decision that will disproportionately impact the region that has steadfastly supported Labour.
This timing feels particularly off-key, as Labour’s pitch to the Welsh electorate for the 2024 general election emphasized a Westminster-Cardiff Bay collaboration, promising a harmonious “partnership in power.” This begs the question: how is Welsh Labour reacting to these developments?
First Minister Eluned Morgan, speaking to a Senedd committee last month, indicated a wait-and-see approach until a comprehensive impact assessment on Wales is conducted. Yet, Welsh Secretary of State Jo Stevens told the BBC that Morgan had “welcomed” the changes, a claim that clearly frustrated the First Minister. During questions in the Welsh Parliament, she retorted, “I’ve got a lot of people trying to put words into my mouth these days, haven’t I?… I had somebody else last week trying to speak for me. I speak for myself.” Morgan’s team later confirmed that her remarks were directed at Stevens.
This wasn’t the only flare-up between the administrations. Within a day, former First Minister Mark Drakeford took the stage in the Senedd to criticize Chancellor Rachel Reeves over national insurance hikes that he argued shortchange Wales. It might sound a bit technical, but breaking it down reveals the core of his discontent. Reeves had pledged that the upcoming NI increase on April 6 would be offset by UK Treasury funds for the public sector. Here’s the catch: the funds are allocated using the Barnett formula, which means Wales receives an increment proportionate to England’s, because England’s public sector is smaller, the additional funds come up short in Wales, leading to a £65 million misalignment. Drakeford was unabashed in his critique: “Treasury ministers had a choice to make… I believe they made the wrong choice.”
This surface tension reflects a deeper unease within Welsh Labour, a feeling that their partners in London fail to grasp their priorities and challenges. The core issue stems from a convoluted constitutional setup. Even with a robust and innovative Welsh government—which arguably hasn’t been fully realized—remedying Wales’ issues would be challenging.
I’ve touched on this before: the vast sums Wales misses out on due to the non-devolved status of heavy rail, in stark contrast to Scotland. Add to this the recent vote where every Welsh Labour MP opposed devolving the crown estate, denying Wales substantial revenue. It’s no wonder there’s a sense of unheeded voices within Welsh Labour.
I recently chatted with Mick Antoniw, a Labour Senedd member and former government counsel. He described the devolution settlement as “asymmetric and dysfunctional,” lamenting the UK government’s centralist stance. Issues like Barnett financial reforms, HS2 funding, and devolving the crown estate spotlight this “constitutional lethargy.” Alun Davies, another Labour Member of the Senedd, echoed this frustration over HS2’s funding disparities, demanding equal treatment as enjoyed by Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Both UK and Welsh Labour are keen to avoid an overt clash. When I reached out to UK Labour, they highlighted some positive developments, such as a slight dip in NHS waiting lists thanks to financial boosts from London, wage increases, and efforts to support regions impacted by industrial changes.
A UK Labour spokesperson acknowledged, “Of course we don’t agree about everything. It would be strange if we did. What ultimately matters is delivering our shared priorities: raising living standards, creating new jobs, reducing NHS waiting lists, making our streets safer and opportunities for people across Wales.”
Yet, without an honest discourse about Wales’s constitutional trajectory and equivalent powers to those of Scotland, Labour risks leaving Wales dependant on the whims of those in Downing Street. A stable economic plan should be a permanent fixture, not an afterthought in some advisor’s notepad.
The foundations of Labour’s “red wall” are under pressure. Come next year’s election, we might witness Labour’s inability to maintain its century-long dominance in Wales. If UK Labour can’t demonstrate that their “partnership in power” is more than rhetoric, they may well be paving the way to their own electoral downfall.
