This week, President Trump stirred the pot by hinting at a potential meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, telling reporters that Washington needs some tidying up for a summit that’s likely not too far off. However, he left us hanging without any specifics, and China hasn’t breathed a word publicly about such a gathering. The stakes would be massive if it happens. Trump has already slapped 20% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. and is considering round two. Naturally, China is eager to de-escalate this trade war to prevent its already struggling economy from taking further hits.
Before such a summit can even be penciled in, China needs clarity on two fronts: What’s Trump aiming for, and who in Washington can actually get his ear? To find some answers, China dispatched scholars for informal talks with Trump officials and U.S. foreign policy experts last month, concerned that their messages might not be reaching Trump himself.
“We use the diplomatic channel,” mentioned Da Wei, who heads the Center for International Security and Strategy at Beijing’s Tsinghua University and joined these discussions. “But can that reach President Trump? Do those people we talked to really know what President Trump is thinking?”
China has been extending olive branches too. The country’s commerce minister recently reached out to the U.S. commerce secretary and trade representative, inviting them for talks. Plus, officials expressed desires for dialogue during discussions on curbing fentanyl production.
While Trump and Xi had a phone chat just before Trump’s inauguration, high-level exchanges have been sparse since. China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, talked with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in January, and Vice Premier He Lifeng communicated with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently.
China is keen to uncover what Trump expects in a trade agreement, and how he would react to China’s own demands. These likely include lifting tariffs, easing tech export restrictions, and assuring non-provocation over Taiwan.
Meanwhile, China stands firm in the face of the Trump administration’s pressures. They’ve countered with tariffs on American agricultural imports, a careful move to inflict some pain while leaving the door open for future negotiations. A Chinese official even pledged to “fight to the end” in any conflict with the U.S.
However, analysts suggest a high-level meeting is crucial before Trump can impose more tariffs, which would strain relations to a breaking point, putting Xi in a tough spot if he agrees to meet then.
“The challenge is, can we move quickly enough before the window of opportunity closes?” Da Wei remarked. He noted that without positivity to balance the negative signals, U.S.-China relations might hit a rough patch.
Some analysts suspect Washington’s hesitance signals an effort by Rubio, a known China hawk, to block China’s advances. “Rubio is not in the mood for talks because he sees China as a threat,” stated Wang Dong, from Peking University’s Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding.
The next month is critical for U.S.-China relations. Trump could enact more tariffs unless serious discussions happen, according to Wu Xinbo, of Fudan University, who also engaged in recent back-channel exchanges.
“My impression is there’s no substantive contact, let alone negotiations, between the two governments,” Wu commented.
Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy poses a unique challenge for Chinese officials, who prefer structured, surprise-free engagements to maintain control. His remarks about Xi potentially visiting Washington likely reflect Trump’s interest rather than concrete plans, indicated Evan Medeiros from Georgetown University.
For China, hosting Trump would be preferable, noted Medeiros, citing national pride. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are cautious about initiating contact, wary that it might prematurely reward China and lead to protracted, unproductive talks. They want a firm agenda in place to prevent impulsive deals.
In this interim, others are stepping up. Senator Steve Daines of Montana plans to discuss issues like fentanyl and increased purchases of American goods during his China trip. However, there’s silence from China on meetings with him.
Ultimately, the big question is whether a viable deal can be struck at all. The U.S. wants China to buy more American goods, but as Yun Sun from the Stimson Center points out, America’s offerings are slim from a Chinese viewpoint.
The U.S. restricts high-tech sales and views Chinese investments skeptically. China demands any deal adhere to market principles, meaning U.S. products can’t just be marked up for the sake of targets.
For now, Trump seems to be waiting it out, strengthening ties with other trade partners as China simmers, according to Sun.
Ana Swanson contributed reporting from Washington.
