Alright, so here’s the scoop. Rivian. You probably heard about ’em – those cool cats in the electric vehicle scene. At the end of 2023, they were all like “Hey, we’re doing great!” But yeah, that hype didn’t last forever. Like, seriously, there’s talk of these pesky tariffs popping up. Apparently, Rivian gets some vital parts for their cars from places like South Korea and China. Boom, potential tariffs, cue the bears.
Yeah, bears. Not the fuzzy kind, the market kind. These dudes at Bernstein, there’s this analyst named Daniel Roeska—big talker, got a lot to say. They gave Rivian the thumbs-down with an underperform rating and said, “Hey, there might be a 50% drop in stock price.” $6.10 target price—ouch, am I right?
Alright, so Rivian vehicles are made here in the U.S. of A., but surprise-surprise, some parts are imported. Batteries, to be specific. With the Trump administration’s 25% tariff on key auto parts possibly kicking in around May, it’s a bit of a sticky situation.
Oh, and their delivery forecast—totally slashed to 37,000 units for 2025. Like, 20% lower than what Rivian was dreaming. It’s not like anyone didn’t see this coming, just look at those delivery graphs. Yeah, they’re not pretty.
No big rabbits out of the hat for Rivian in 2025. The R2, a cheaper model, ain’t gonna roll out before 2026. So, where’s the magic spark for those deliveries, huh? Nowhere.
So, the analysts weren’t holding back, basically saying things were gonna be painful. Like, cuttin’ deep with those numbers—negative $2.2 billion in EBITDA, worse than expected. And they’re talking about possibly ditching the LFP variants and maybe needing to raise new equity. Yikes.
But wait, the rabbit hole goes deeper. Rivian’s got some chatter about a joint gig with Volkswagen—up to $5.8 billion and this $6.6 billion DOE loan for their Georgia plant. But the analysts? They got doubts. Something about Rivian needing two quarters of $50 million in gross profit, and guess what? Doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen in early 2025. Things are iffy on when they might crack that milestone.
That DOE loan? The numbers gotta look good or it could delay cash flow for their Georgia plant, which is kinda crucial for next-gen rides.
But hey, don’t reach for the panic button just yet. Rivian’s still got potential with the Volkswagen partnership, and unless their financials divebomb, they should get the funding to work on that R2 model. Just a simple “Hey, keep an eye on both sides of the coin” moment when you’re lookin’ at your investments. Even when it’s looking pretty bleak.
