On Thursday, Bitcoin reached a significant milestone, standing out amidst a backdrop of major assets experiencing declines or remaining within broad trading ranges.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar continued to weaken as markets awaited Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
What stories drove market movements yesterday? Let’s dive in:
Headlines:
Bitcoin surged above $100K, hitting $104K briefly before easing down.
Australia reported an increased goods trade surplus of 5.95 billion AUD, with exports rising 3.6% compared to a mere 0.1% increase in imports.
Switzerland saw its unemployment rate hold steady at 2.6% for November, beating the expected rise to 2.7%.
In Germany, factory orders fell 1.5% month-on-month in October, which was better than the anticipated 2% drop. The previous month’s fall was revised from 4.2% to 7.2%.
The Bank of England survey indicated that companies expect inflation to rise to 2.7% in November, up slightly from October’s 2.6%.
France’s industrial production improved, shifting from -0.8% month-on-month to -0.1% in October, where a slight growth of 0.2% was anticipated. September’s data was revised to 0.9%.
The UK construction PMI climbed from 54.3 to 55.2 in November, defying forecasts of 53.5 due to a decline in new order growth.
Eurozone retail sales dipped 0.5% month-on-month in October, more than the expected 0.3% decrease, following a 0.5% increase the previous month.
OPEC+ agreed to phase in an output hike in three stages, starting in April 2025.
In the U.S., Challenger job cuts grew by 26.8% year-over-year in November, with 57,000 job cuts reported for the month.
The U.S. weekly initial jobless claims ending Nov 28 were 224K, slightly above the expected and previous 215K.
The U.S. trade deficit shrank to 73.8 billion USD from 83.8 billion, performing better than the anticipated 75.2 billion USD shortfall as exports declined 1.6% and imports decreased by 4% in October.
Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to 0.9 billion CAD from 1.3 billion CAD in October, as export growth of 1.1% outpaced a 0.5% increase in imports.
BOE member Megan Greene remarked that consumer recovery might take some time due to high mortgage rates impacting some consumers.
Broad Market Price Action:
Most major assets maintained a holding pattern on Thursday as traders awaited key U.S. labor market data set for release on Friday.
Bitcoin commanded attention by crossing the $100K barrier, briefly reaching $104K before settling back to $97K. The rise followed after Trump’s announcement to nominate Paul Atkins—an advocate for crypto and deregulation—to lead the SEC.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar remained weak, keeping in line with expectations of a December Fed rate cut. However, gold and U.S. stocks pulled back from their weekly highs, likely a result of some traders cashing in before the non-farm payroll release.
In energy markets, OPEC+ announced a three-month delay in unwinding their output cuts, an anticipated move which left U.S. crude prices steady below the $69.00 mark.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
The U.S. dollar continued its decline ahead of Friday’s jobs report. USD/JPY fell by 70 pips when BOJ’s Toyoaki Nakamura, known for his dovish views, indicated openness to a rate hike.
The dollar slipped further during early European trading as Germany’s factory orders exceeded expectations and political tensions eased in France, offering some respite to the eurozone’s prospects.
The Greenback experienced a slight recovery before the U.S. session commenced, but couldn’t maintain upward momentum. Reports on Challenger job cuts and weekly jobless claims didn’t alter forecasts for a December Fed rate cut, and sluggish U.S. 10-year yields compounded its challenges.
By day’s end, the dollar weakened broadly, losing significantly against the euro, Swiss franc, and Kiwi, while its declines against the yen, Aussie, and Loonie were less severe.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:
- Germany’s industrial production data at 7:00 am GMT
- Germany’s trade balance at 7:00 am GMT
- U.K.’s Halifax HPI at 7:00 am GMT
- France’s trade balance at 7:45 am GMT
- European final employment change at 10:00 am GMT
- Italian retail sales at 10:00 am GMT
- European revised GDP at 10:00 am GMT
- Canada’s labor market data at 1:30 pm GMT
- U.S. NFP reports at 1:30 pm GMT
- FOMC member Bowman’s speech at 2:15 pm GMT
- U.S. preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations at 3:00 pm GMT
- Canada’s Ivey PMI at 3:30 pm GMT
- FOMC member Goolsbee’s speech at 3:30 pm GMT
- FOMC member Hammack’s speech at 5:00 pm GMT
- FOMC member Daly’s speech at 6:00 pm GMT
Today’s economic calendar is ripe with high-impact events worldwide, featuring key industrial figures from Germany, employment data from both Canada and the U.S., and inflation indicators that have the potential to sway currency pairs significantly.
Expect market volatility to spike, particularly during the North American session, when a raft of U.S. labor market data is due at 1:30 pm GMT. Following these releases, multiple Fed speakers, including Bowman, Goolsbee, Hammack, and Daly, will share insights that might shape the Fed’s monetary policy stance.
Keep a close eye on these developments to navigate potential trading opportunities, and don’t forget to make use of our Currency Correlation tool when placing trades!
