Sure thing. Here goes—a whirlwind of market chaos and side thoughts.
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Whoa, so imagine this—Dow just rocketed over a thousand points! Like pow! Outta nowhere, right? It’s all thanks to some US-China chat over the weekend. Now, tariffs, that’s a whole crazy thing, ain’t it? So, the US decides to trim theirs down to 30%, while China gives a friendly cut to 10%. These aren’t like permanent or anything but will stick around for 90 days, starting Tuesday. Fun times ahead!
So here’s the kicker: DJIA jumped like a kangaroo on Monday, going past the 42k mark, which we haven’t seen since April (felt like forever, seriously). It’s like investors got a double shot of optimism with these so-called temporary tariff trims. Trump’s crew somehow thinks this keeps their trade ideas rolling. Whether that’s genius or madness, who can really say? Maybe both.
Alright, the markets are loving this throwback relax moment on tariffs. US and China seem to agree (for now) on cooling their zesty tit-for-tat act for a bit—90 days to be exact. The US keeps its 10% universal tariff, then slaps another 20% on top ’cause of the fentanyl crisis. Doesn’t seem totally fair to me, but hey, who’s asking? Even with all our homeland security expenses, Trump’s team keeps pointing fingers at outsiders for the mess.
This truce couldn’t have come at a better time. We got some big inflation numbers dropping soon. Trump’s fancy trade moves are part of the new stats rolling out. Tuesday’s gonna show us April’s CPI figures. They say inflation’s ticking up. Who knows what the real story is? But look, folks are betting core CPI will just chill at 2.8% YoY. It feels like everyone’s holding their breath.
Oh man, inflation’s been this annoying hitchhiker above the Fed’s 2% goal for four freakin’ years. Even though it’s dropped from a crazy peak of 6.6% back in ’22, the Fed just can’t cut rates fast enough to make anyone happy. So here we are, expectations for a rate cut in July just tanked. Are we surprised? Nah.
Now, here’s a twist—the word around town is that no rate cuts are likely until at least September. The CME’s FedWatch Tool says so. There’s a 60/40 chance the Fed’s gonna sit on its hands in July, totally new vibe from that almost-sure quarter-point rate cut dream we had last week. Funny how the market turns, huh?
So, let’s shift gears. With Monday’s tariff-easing party, Dow cruised right past the 200-day EMA around 41,500, first time since April. It’s like a 16% bounce-back dance from the 36,600 dive bomb from early in the month. But, we’re still not there yet—6% away from those all-time high clouds above 45k. Baby steps, right?
Anyway, keeping an eye on these numbers could make you dizzy. With all this going on, who knows where we’re heading? Fingers crossed, it’s somewhere exciting.
The Dow’s dancing, CPI’s lurking, and the Fed—well, let’s just say they’re kinda playing the waiting game. Here’s to whatever comes next! 🥂
