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Consider this your go-to guide to understand the implications of the 2024 US election, not just for Washington, but on a global scale.
Sir Keir Starmer is positioning himself as a “bridge” between Washington and Europe amidst escalating tensions across the Atlantic concerning Ukraine, defense strategies, trade issues, and free speech debates.
This coming Monday, the UK Prime Minister is set to join a summit hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron. The focus is Europe’s contribution to bringing an end to the conflict in Ukraine amid indications that US President Donald Trump is marginalizing the continent.
According to those close to Starmer, the United Kingdom might consider deploying troops to Ukraine as part of a broader European initiative aimed at ensuring peace. During the Paris meeting, discussions are anticipated to include the potential deployment of a “reassurance force,” with troops stationed behind, rather than directly on, any future ceasefire lines.
Later in February, Starmer plans to visit Washington, aiming to convince Trump to actively engage European countries in the Ukraine talks and to negotiate against looming US tariffs.
The Prime Minister noted that this represents “a once-in-a-generation moment for our national security, demanding we face the realities of today’s world and the threat posed by Russia.”
He continued, “The UK is committed to unifying the US and Europe. We simply cannot allow internal alliance divisions to detract from the common threats we face.”
Downing Street anticipates another meeting among European leaders, potentially including Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, once Starmer concludes his discussions with Trump.
Amidst Trump’s pressure for increased defense budgets, Britain—similar to other European nations—faces the challenge of sluggish economic growth and stressed public services.
Starmer has promised to outline “a pathway” to escalate UK defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP, although he hasn’t specified a timeline for achieving this goal yet.
Starmer’s supporters have maintained that defense spending will not exceed the 2.5% GDP target detailed in Labour’s manifesto, resulting in mounting friction with defense leaders who are asking for more resources.
An insider close to the Prime Minister commented, “There will certainly be no announcement on the timeline to achieve 2.5% GDP before the Trump visit. A strategic defense review needs completion first.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves aims to maintain defense spending at 2.3% for as long as feasible, especially since her fiscal plans are under tight scrutiny. Starmer, who ultimately has the final say, is under pressure from both the White House and defense chiefs to expedite the move to 2.5%.
Reeves’ fiscal policy aims for a budget surplus by 2029, but current economic downturns have eliminated her £9.9 billion margin for error. This suggests further budget cuts or tax hikes may be necessary to close the deficit.
If defense spending is raised to 2.5% of GDP by 2029—an expected election year—Reeves would need to identify an additional £5-6 billion, affecting already strained public services.
During Friday’s briefing with Starmer, defense leaders asserted their immediate need for the 2.5% GDP funding to prevent current cuts. Their request to further raise that figure to 2.65%—about £10 billion more annually—has been rejected by Starmer and Reeves due to affordability concerns.
The concept of Britain as a “bridge” between Washington and Europe has waned since Brexit, with US leaders often turning to Berlin, Paris, and Brussels in dialogue. However, Starmer’s team believes Trump views Britain favorably, which could potentially be leveraged for political sway, despite recent criticisms from Vice President JD Vance regarding the UK’s stance on free speech.
UK Business and Trade Secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, told the BBC on Sunday that Britain’s balanced trading relations and its regulatory approach towards artificial intelligence could benefit the country. “There’s certainly a differing view of the UK compared to Europe,” Reynolds asserted. “We have an opportunity to contribute constructively.” Regarding trade, he remarked that the US perceives Britain “in a distinct light.”
Recently, UK Ambassador to Washington, Lord Peter Mandelson, suggested that Britain should capitalize on being “non-European.” However, with Trump’s proposed sweeping tariffs and Vance’s recent reprovals, it’s uncertain if this will materialize favorably for Starmer.
At the Munich Security Conference last week, Vance contended that the “basic liberties of religious Britons, in particular,” are under threat, singling out the legal action against an anti-abortion protestor.
Starmer’s push for special treatment from Trump, especially regarding tariffs, might complicate efforts to “reset” EU relations and eliminate trade barriers concurrently.
Trump confirmed on Friday that Starmer had sought a meeting in Washington, noting “a lot of good things” in their interactions. He mentioned that the meeting is “soon,” adding that Starmer “wants to visit next week or the week after.”
